Dr Stephen Catterall

I am a mathematical modeller working on models for infectious disease transmission and control. I typically use Bayesian methods to fit disease transmission models to data from disease outbreaks. I use simulation to predict future disease spread and the impact of potential disease control measures.

I am working on methods to analyse disease outbreak data when the spatial distribution of the disease hosts is uncertain or unknown. This situation is quite common, as disease outbreak data commonly comprise only a list of cases with associated times and locations. These methods were initially tested on simulated outbreak data. I am now working on applications to disease scenarios such as the spread of African Swine Fever in wild boar and the spread of Avian Influenza in both poultry and wild birds.