At ISVEE17, EPIC scientists discussed timely research on animal disease communications and management, surveillance, and modelling.
EPIC scientists presented their expertise at the International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics: ISVEE17 Conference in Sydney, Australia from 11 to 15 November.
Research shared included, wild bird carcass collection in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the use of artificial intelligence in emerging epidemic situations, animal disease communications and management, surveillance of African swine fever (ASF), and frameworks for modelling disease spread. As several of the diseases discussed have had impacts globally, some with increasing risk levels in recent months, the forward-thinking research was positively received by the international epidemiology community.
HPAI and AI
During the first days of ISVEE17, EPIC Knowledge Broker, Davide Pagnossin presented research found through a dynamic risk assessment on HPAI.
An ongoing global concern, as of 12 December 2024, Great Britain has seen six cases of HPAI in captive birds, and there have been major outbreaks in poultry and wild birds in recent years.
Davide highlighted that carcass collection during outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in wild birds reduced the likelihood of onward transmission of HPAI to other wild birds in areas of low bird density. However, in areas of high bird density, this mitigation strategy was not considered to alter the likelihood of transmission.
In another ISVEE17 session, Sam Lycett, EPIC Molecular Epidemiologist and Phylodynamic Modeller continued the conversation about HPAI. To predict future outbreaks, Sam and her colleagues used phylodynamic growth rates, and existing data about virus strains containing genetic material from two different viruses (reassortants). She stated they discovered oversummering due to the virus spreading among sea birds.
The talk was concluded by exploring to what extent drivers of spread and environmental spatial data can be used as predictors for future outbreaks, and how machine learning and artificial intelligence models can be used in endemic situations or emerging epidemic situations.
Communicating with farmers about animal health
Further demonstrating EPIC’s range of expertise from quantitative modelling to social science, Maria Costa, an EPIC expert in Veterinary Epidemiology presented the results of a scoping review. “In brief, vets seem to be the farmers’ primary and preferred source of information relating to animal health and disease,” Maria stated in a LinkedIn post about her presentation. She explained that they found ensuring collaboration across all stakeholders and a range of communication methods tailored to each farmer is also important.
Crediting her colleagues Jorge Rivera Gomis and John Berezowski, Maria also presented findings from a workshop engaging Scottish Government (SG) advisors, British surveillance experts, and academics to devise a syndromic surveillance strategy for livestock diseases in Scotland. View the full poster.
African Swine Fever: Surveillance and Control
Gianluigi Rossi, Disease Ecologist and Epidemiologist with EPIC shared that his team performs network analysis to estimate the potential reach of an ASF outbreak. This helps to highlight the most vulnerable areas and can aid in planning for surveillance and outbreak control.
Gianluigi also emphasised to the international audiences present, the importance of Scotland’s national database (ScotEID) which records movements of pigs and helps scientists assess the potential impact of exotic disease introduction.
Multivariate time series modelling: Veterinary Surveillance
As a Statistician, Spatial Epidemiology in EPIC, Jude Eze presented work demonstrating the utility of livestock disease information to optimally predict associated human disease cases. He also discussed multivariate surveillance time series modelling to detect health changes at more than one level of a production system.
All fourteen EPIC presenters and their presentation titles are available on our ISVEE17 event page. We look forward to continuing to share knowledge with new connections made during ISVEE17 to strengthen animal welfare across Scotland and the country.
For more information about ISVEE17 presentations or EPIC, please email epic.scotland@ed.ac.uk.
